Monday, June 15, 2009

WMT Adjustment

Sorry for not posting last week...I lost my focus for a short bit. look for my next post on "How to get ahead when it seem like everything is holding you back."

First things First

I am starting to think about the next month and what I will be doing for this WMT Call Calendar to be profitable...
The Short Call is going to expire worthless, unless Wal-Mart spikes up above 52.50 in the next 4-5 days...

I did notice some sell signals on Friday, and with the market moves today they are more then confirmed.

It goes without saying that buying a Long Put on Friday would have been a good move and very justified. Sometimes you just miss it, buying a put now, well...there are 3 things that I am seeing that tell me it may be to late for this protective put.
  1. The Bollinger Bands (lower band is being tested, this may be a sign of oversold conditions or just that the theory is being tested. No clear signs of oversold right now)
  2. The Money Flow Index (after a few days of money flowing out of this stock, we are starting to see some signs of that changing.)
  3. The support trend line that has been established for the last year is being tested again and there is nothing overly negative about this stock that tells me it will trend to much lower.


There are 2 things that I will be considering come next Monday...
  • If WMT comes back to the 50+ range by Friday. Adding another short call at the 52.50 strike.
OR
  • If WMT stays in this lower range by Friday. I will consider the short call at the 50 strike. NOTE: this will change the dynamic of the trade to a Bear Call Calendar and will change the risk profile quite a bit. (The new risk will be equal to the difference in the 2 strikes PLUS the net debit.)
I wait and see...Look to Wednesday some good events will be happening that can show us some more insight.

For more information or to set up a 1 on 1 coaching session please contact me directly at coachnuge@gmail.com

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